IBICIRO BY’IBIKOMOKA KURI PETEROLI BIKOMEJE KUMANUKA: ESE NINDE WUNGUKA NI NANDE UHOMBA?

Kw’Isoko Mpuzamahanga ibiciro by’ibikomoka kuri Peteroli bikomeje kugwa kuburyo bukomeye kuva  muri Nyakanga 2014 no mumwaka wa 2015 wose. Ibi bikaba bigira ingaruka zitandukanye haba ku bihugu bicukara bikanacuruza ibikomoka kuri Peteroli ndetse no ku bihugu nk'u Rwanda bibigura ibikomoka kuri Peteroli byose bikoresha .

Kuva mu 2010 kujyeza hagati mu 2014, ibiciro by’ibikomoka kuri Peteroli ntago byagize impinduka nyinshi, aho wasangaga bibarirwa hafi y’Amadolari 110 na 85 ku kagunguru ($110/barrel) k’ibikomoka kuri Peteroli. Kuva muri Nyakanya 2014, ibiciro byagiye bimanuka kuburyo bukomeye kuburyo kurubu akagunguru kari kugura amadolari 35.99 kw’isoko rya Brent Crude Oil(mu Bwongereza) na 33.62 kw’isoko ry’Abanyamerika rya US Crude(kuwa 30/01/2016).

Inganda zicukura Peteroli ntiziteguye kugabanya umusaruro

Impamvu ziri gabanuka zirimo igabanuka ry’abatumiza nabagura ibikomoka kuri Peteroli mu bihugu byinshi bibigura kw’isoko mpuzamahanga bitewe n’icumbagira ry’ubwiyongere bw’ubukungu bw’ibihugu; hamwe kandi no kwiyongera cyane  kw’ibikomoka kuri Peteroli bicukurwa na Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika. Ndetse no kunanirwa kumvikana kw’igabanywa ryingano y’utugunguru ducukurwa naburi gihugu ku munsi hagati y’ibihugu bigize Ishyirahamwe ry’ibihugu bicukura Peteroli OPEC( Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries).

Mugihe iri gabanuka kw’ibiciro rivuzeko hari igabanuka ry’imari y’injizwa nabacukura bakanacuruza Ibikomoka kuri Peteroli naho ababigurabo bakaba bishyura make mukubigura. Ariko se muri rusange ninde ubwungukiramo ninde ubihomberamo?

UBURUSIYA

Uburusiya buri mubihugu byambere bicukura ibikomoka kuri Peteroli nyinshi; ubukungu bwabwo bukaba ariho bushingiye cyane kuko bigize 70% yibyo Uburusiya bwohereza hanze byose.

Uburusiya buhomba miliyari ebyiri z’amadorali kuri buri dolari rimwe rigabanutse kugiciro cy’Ibikomoka kuri Peteroli kw’isoko mpuzamahanga. Ibi hanwe nibihano mubyubukungu bafatiwe kubera gushyigikira abarwanya ubutegetsi muri Ukraine, agaciro ki Rouble ry’Uburusiya karagabanyutse cyane bituma rigeze kuri 17% by’inyungu(interest rate) murwego rwo kugerageza kurishyigikira kw’isoko mpuzamahanga.

Uburusiya ariko bwanze kugabanya ingano y’utugunguru bucukura buvugako buramutse bugabanyije ibihugu bitumiza ibikomoka kuri Peteroli bimwe byakongera ingano yibyo byicukurira ubwabyo cyangwa se bikabitumiza ahandi, nko muri USA ;byatuma butakaza amasoko y’ingenzi.

Ibi rero bivuzeko ubukungu bw’Uburusiya buri mu bibazo bikomeye nimba ibiciro bya Peteroli bikomeje kugabanuka kuko bivuze igabanuka ry’umusaruro wibikomoka mu gihugu(GDP). Ikindi  kandi bikaba bikomeye kubashoramari kugira ibikorwa batangiza muri icyo gihugu kuko bihenze kuba waguza cyangwa wahahisha ama Rouble y’Uburusiya kubera  urwunguko rurihejuru(17%).

VENEZUELA

Venezuela nayo iri mubihugu byohereza hanze ibikomoka kuri Peteroli byinshi, ariko kubera ruswa n’icungwa nabi ry’umutungo ihorana ibibazo byubukungu yewe nambere yuko ibiciro by’ibikomoka kuri Peteroli bitangira kugwa. Kuri ubu I Bolivar rya Venezuela ryataye agaciro kurugero rwa 69%(Inflation), ubukungu bukaba bwugarijwe bigaragara kuburyo ingamba za Guverinoma zo kugabanya ikoreshwa ry’umutungo no kwizirika umukanda bigaragako bikenewe.

Nubwo aruko bimeze Guverinoma ya Perezida Maduro ifita amahitamo atoroshye: Ubusanzwe iki gihugu kiri mubifite ibiciro byo hasi cyane kw’isi. Leta yashyiriyeho abaturage ubwasisi(Subsidies) ku bikomoka kuri Peteroli buyitwara akayabo ka miliyari cumi n’ebyiri n’igice z’amadorali buri mwaka.

Perezida akaba yaremejeko igihe kitaragera cyo gukuraho ubwo bwasisi kuko yemezako hakiri ikizere ko ibintu byagenda neza. Nyamara ababyitegereza bakemeza ko ntayandi mahitamo afite kuko ukwiyongera kw’ibiciro guheruka mu 1989 kwateje imvururu zikomeye zaguyemo amagana y’abantu.

SAUDI ARABIA

Saudi Arabia, igihugu gicukura cy’ikanohereza ibikomoka kuri Peteroli byinshi kurusha ibindi kw’isi kikagira n’ijambo rikomeye muri OPEC gifite ubushobozi bwo kuba cyagabanya ingano ya Peteroli gicukura kikana gurisha kw’isoko maze ibiciro bikaba byakongera bikiyongera; ariko ntagahunda yo kubikora gifite.

Mumpamvu twavuga ziri inyuma yo kuku kwifata harimo;-Gutanga isomo kubindi bihugu biba muri OPEC indi ikaba gushyira igitutu k’ubucukuzi bwa Peteroli na Gas bwo muri USA birikuzamuka cyane. Ikindi kandi ntibiyibagije ubwo baheruka gufata icymezo nkiki ingaruka byagize,. Mu mwaka y’I 1980; Saudi Arabia yigeze kugabanya ingano ya Peteroli yacukuraga yibwirako bizongera ibiciro byayo ariko byagize impinduka nkeya kubiciro, byabaviriyemomo igihombo kinini.

Nubwo Saudi Arabia iba ikeneyeko ibiciro byaguma hafi y’amadorali 85 mugihe kirambye; ariko nubwo byagabanutse ntakibazo byayiteza kuko yizigamiye agera kuri miliyari 700 z’amadolari mu Kigega cya Leta. Bityo ikizerako igabanuka ry’ibiciro ryatuma abacukuzi n’abacuruzi bato bato ba Peteroli bava kw’isoko maze bikayifasha kugura imigabane myinshi kw’isoko rya Peteroli.

OPEC

Uyumuryango uhuza ibihugu bicukura Peteroli nawo uri kugerwaho n’ingaruka zigabanuka ry’ibiciro; ibi ahanini bitewe nuko wananiwe kumvikanisha ibihugu biwugize mu nama yabihuje kuwa 4 Ukuboza 2015 ngo bifate icyemezo bihuriyeho ngo byongere kuzamura ibiciro bya Peteroli.

Iyi nama yananiwe kugera kucyemezo ahanini kuberako ibihugu biwugize bitagerwaho n’ingaruka zigabanuka ry’ibiciro kuburyo bumwe. Ibigendana nuko ibyo bihugu bifite Politike z’ubukungu zitandukanye, bigatuma n’ingaruka zitandukana.

Ibi byateye uyu muryango gucikamo ibice ; nkaho ibihugu nka Saudi Arabia, ibihugu byo mukigobe cya Gulf(United Arab Emirates na Kuwait) bifite amadevise(amafaranga y’amanyamahanga/amadolari) mubigega byabo bikaba bifite ubushobozi bwo guhangana nizo ngaruka. Bityo bikaba bitashyigikira imigambi isanko kwizirika umukanda bagabanya ibyo bacukura kugirango ibiciro byongere kwiyongera.

Ikindi gice kigizwe n’ibihugu nka Iraq,Nigeria,Venezuela,Libia…bifite umubare munini w’abaturage na Goverinoma zabyo ziba zirambirije cyane kubucukuzi bw’ibikomoka kuri Peteroli kugirango zibone ingengo y’imari yo gushyira mubikorwa imigambi ya Leta;mugihe mububiko bwabyo bifit emunsi ya miliari 200 z’amadolari($200bn) ibi bihugu bikaba byifuzako OPEC yakora ibishoboka byose ibiciro bikongera kwiyongera.

Kurubu ibihugu byo muri OPEC bikaba bihangayikishijwe kandi no kwiyongera kwicukurwa rya Peteroli muri Leta z’Ubumwe z’Amerika (USA) mugihe yahoze ari isoko rinini rya Peteroli. Naho intambara muri Syria na Iraq ndetse n’ibikorwa bya Leta ya k’Islam yafashe ibirombe byinshi bya Peteroli kuri ubu ikaba yinjiza ajyera kuri milliyoni 3 z’amadorali kumunsi kw’isoko ritemewe(black market) kuko igurisha kugiciro gito cyane.

AFRIKA

Muri Afrika ibihugu byinshi cyane cyane ibyo munsi y’ubutayu bwa Sahara bifite amahirwe yo kugura ibikomoka kuri Peteroli kugiciro gito. Ibi bikaba byabifasha mukugabanya ingengo y’imari bitakaza kuri Peteroli bitumiza hanze. Kubifite ingamba bikaba byashyiraho ibigega byo kubika Peteroli yo kuzakoresha mugihe kizaza ubwo ibiciro byaba byiyongereye. Ibi bikaba byafasha kugabanya ibiciro byo gutwara ibintu n’abantu; bikongera amahirwe yo gushora imari muri aka karere.

Ibindi bihugu by’Afrika nka Nigeria,Algeria,Angola,…bicukura Peteroli nabyo bikaba bihanganye n’ingaruka zigabanuka ry’ibiciro. Igihugu nka Nigeria kiri kumwanya wambere mubicukura Peteroli muri Afrika cyagize iterambere rikomeye mubukungu bwacyo muri iyimyaka ariko buracyashingiye cyane kuri Peteroli bacukura. Ubucuruzi bwa Peteroli bwiharira agera kuri 80% y’imari yinjizwa na Guverinoma, bikaba ari 90% yibwyo igihugu cyohereza mu mahanga.

LETA ZUNZE UBUMWE Z’AMERIKA (USA)

Urugero kw’icukurwa ry’Ibikomoka kuri Peteroli muri Usa mumpera z’umwaka wa 2015 rwageze kukigero rutari rwarigeze rugeraho mumwaka mirongo 30 ishize. Icukurwa rya Gas na Peteroli ukuresheje uburyo bushya bwa “Hydraulic Fracturing cg Fracking” buri mubyateye igabanuka ry’ibiciro bya Peteroli.

USA yahoze arimwe mu masoko akomeye ya Peteroli icukurwa mu Burengerazuba bwo Hagati; ariko kurubu icukurwa rya Peteroli nyinshi muri USA byagabanyije cyane iyo batumiza hanze. Ibikandi bifasha igihugu mukugabanya imari bashora mubitumizwa hanze ariko bongere umusaruro w’imbere mu gihugu(GDP). Ibibisobanurako hari amahirwe yo guterimbere k’ubukungu n’ubwiyongere bwagaciro k’idorali ry’Amerika.

UBURAYI NA ASIYA

Mugihe kurubu Uburayi  burangwa n’ubukungu bucumbagira, icyagabanya ingano y’ imari bashora mubyo batumiza hanze cyakwakiranwa ibyishimo na Guverinoma nyinshi zo muburayi.

Igabanuka ry’igiciro kingana ni 10% gishobora gutera  ubwiyongere  bwa 0.1% kubukungu bw’Uburayi; naho imibereho y’abaturage ikaba yaterimbere kuko ibiciro by’ibikomoka kuri Peteroli byagabanutse.

K’Ubushinwa nubwo irigabanuka ry’ibiciro bya Peteroli bitabuza igabanuka ry’ubwiyongera mu bukungu riri kuranga iki gihugu; bishobora kuza kukigira igihugu cyambere gitumiza ibikomoka kuri Peteroli mu mahanga kuko byaba bihendutse.

Ubuyapani busanzwe butumiza hanze ibikomoka kuri Peteroli bikoreshwa mu gihugu hose. Ariko  Igabanuka ry’ibiciro rifite ingaruka zimvange; ibiciro birihejuru bya Peteroli byari byarafashije Leta yarabyifashishije murwego rwokuzamura ibiciro kugirango barengere ubukungu rusange bw’igihugu. Naho igabanuka ry’ibiciro rishobora gutera igabanuka ry’ibiciro kumasoko n’imibereho myiza y’abanyagihugu n’igabanuka ry’ubukungu bw’igihugu.

Ubuhinde nikindi gihugu gitumiza Peteroli nyinshi aho 75% bitumizwa mu mahanga. Abahanga bavugako irigabanuka bwakorohereza Ubuhinde mukugabanya imyenda ndetse n’ingengo y’imari yagendaga kubwasisi bwa Peteroli ho miliyari 2.5 z’amadolari($2.5bn) ku mwaka.